November 2008 - Bruce D. Greenberg, MAI, SRA, ASA

Three Wise Men

Bruce D. Greenberg, MAI, SRA, ASA, President, Valuaciones Montaña Verde, SA de CV

 

The Urban Land Institute (ULI) held its Latin America Conference in Miami, Florida on October 27-28.  I had the honor and privilege to participate in this program as the moderator of the “Resort Development in Mexico” panel. At this conference, I had the pleasure to speak personally with three great statesmen, who were invited speakers by ULI.  It is my duty to pass on their messages and assist in the efforts they have shown through their years of service to Mexico, the United States, Latin America and throughout the world. 

Vicente Fox – Former President, Republic of Mexico

Simply put, Presidente Fox reminded us that we all in the greater western hemisphere are “Americans”.  Many residents, and their ancestors, across the United States, Mexico, Canada, Argentina, Brazil and throughout Latin America journeyed to the other side of the world to escape persecution, while in search of a common goal; freedom and opportunity.  He urged us, as “Americans” to work together to increase productivity amongst our neighboring nations to build and support each other’s economies and build better homes for our people.

Presidente Fox believes the U.S. can and will adjust during this economic downturn. He shared with the group of executives his comparisons of the current crisis in the U.S. to the Tequila Crisis in the 90’s, and showed how Mexico has worked to overcome crisis and explained how the country has studied the past to prepare itself from crisis.  He commended Presidente Calederon for his handling of the current situation and believes the new President has provided Mexico with positive results.  Presidente Fox honestly, sincerely, and clearly encourages the US to partners up with Mexico as a “good neighbor”, and work hand in hand.  He believes the effect on the global economy and its recovery period can be shorten with strong global partners.

Paul Volcker - Former Chairman, US Federal Reserve

Mr. Volcker was blunt and forward as he stated that “it took the U.S. a crisis to wake up” and that we are in a “severe global recession”.  Mr. Volcker reminded the group of executive that the U.S. is currently in a financial crisis with little or no money flowing, and detailed how the U.S.’ “historic” patterns were wrong:

  • Personal and business consumption was too high;
  • Personal and business savings was and is too low;
  • There was and is too much personal and business debt; and
  • It was too easy to borrow money.

Paul Volcker stated that the U.S. and the global economy are in a “Great Recession” and assured the group that we would “not be in a Great Depression”.  Mr. Volcker urged that we need to restore trust and confidence in our government and financial systems.  The Former Chairman also noted that we must rebuild over “lousy financial and infrastructure structures”; and when this is done we will be on the road to recovery. Mr. Volcker concluded by stating, “Changes are coming - - they MUST”.

Sam Zell - Chairman of the Board, Equity International

Sam Zell, a successful first generation United States citizen, is heavily invested into Latin American, particularly in Mexico and Brazil; Homex, Credito Inmobiliario, and Mexico Retail Properties.  He expressed his great desire for Latin America, stating he is currently a buyer and heavily promoted investment into these markets.

Mr. Zell’s reasons for his bullish position on Mexico and Brazil include:

  • There is a current demand in Latin America - Demand is key;
  • The low debt positions with governments and businesses having fiscal-conservative discipline;
  •  Population growth will continue;
  •  Most investors are Stakeholders not opportunists;
  •  Information is key.  Mr. Zell promoted finding companies and resources, such as Montaña Verde, who have and know how to acquire the necessary data; and
  •  Find strong ethical partners.

Mr. Zell has achieved great success throughout Latin America and sees Mexico and Brazil particularly as continuing to be strong emerging markets with great opportunity for investment for the foreseeable future.

Conclussion:

This conference in Miami came with great timing, during this economic downturn, providing a forum for the executives in the room to listen to the “Three Wise Men”.  They reminded us that the Stakeholders of Mexico and Latin America will continue its economic growth and great opportunity and profits still lie ahead of us as we ride this cycle out.  
 
Bruce D. Greenberg, MAI, SRA, ASA
520-750-8200
bruce@mvconsultants.com

 


RETURN